Tropical Storm Ana threatens Antigua and Barbuda

This week has been a strange one for tropical weather forecasters with a tropical wave out in the Atlantic fooling everyone. At first they said this wave was going to develop into a depression and it took some time doing it. Finally it became tropical depression number two or "TD 2". It was then forecast to go North of the island chain and we were told not to worry about it and to focus on the tropical wave behind it. Everyone stopped looking at TD 2 which started to fizzle and we all started to become extremely worried about what was now "invest 90L" (a very strong tropical wave). This thing was forecst to strengthen rapidly and was also forecast to track straight to us arriving on wednesday as a hurricane. Nobody i spoke with in Antigua yesterday (except Steve Mendes) mentioned TD 2 which had been downgraded to a tropical wave once again. We were all making plans for 90 L. Last night i went out for a few rums with the crew and returned home pretty late deciding to look at the forecasts before hitting the bed. WOW!
The old TD 2 had strengthened and was forecast to pass right over Antigua and Barbuda as a Tropical Storm on Monday!!!! This wasn't expected, and at this hour most people on the island are unaware of this.
Here is the National Hurricane Center 11 am forecast:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 151432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA
ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA...PRONOUNCED AH-NA...MOVING
QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3
WEST OR ABOUT
920 MILES...1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MOTION COULD
BRING THE CENTER OF ANA NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 48.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES
AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

You can see the forecast track here showing times and intensity forecasts here in this image:

Another good tracking map for Ana is this one.
Some good sites to go to are http://www.weathercarib.com/ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ and of course you can see local reports on http://www.stormcarib.com/
For now the weather couldnt be better and i have seen many people going out here in jolly harbour today on their boats. I will post more on the stormcarib site later today.